WTO: Policy uncertainty weighs on global trade

World Trade Organization (WTO) warns that rising trade policy uncertainty and potential new tariffs could weigh on global commerce in the medium term, despite stable growth in the fourth quarter of 2024 and projections for continued expansion in early 2025.

The latest Goods Trade Barometer shows the global trade sentiment index edged up to 102.8 from 102.7 in December, just above the baseline of 100, signaling growth remains on track. Key sub-indices include:

Export orders (101.0)
Electronic components (102.3)
Raw materials (101.6) at trend levels
Car products (105.5), container shipping (103.7), and air freight (102.7) exceeding expectations.
However, the report cautions that increased uncertainty may temporarily inflate trade volumes as businesses and consumers stock up in advance of potential policy shifts, potentially leading to weaker demand later this year.

The WTO introduced the trade barometer in July 2016 to provide early signals of short-term trade trends using data from major economies, aiding policymakers and businesses.